Today we looked at the SPY, Dow, XLF, GS, VIX, GLD and FAZ. We discuss our afterhours short trade on thursday as the SPY finally hit our resistance of the longer term descending channel. This is the first time we hit this resistance in 3 months, and the bears are all on the sidelines still since they were squeezed on monday by Geithner’s 1 tillion dollar plan. With that in mind, the bears should come back very to sell the market down to fibonacci retracements of the latest move higher. The market today saved itself from breaking the support of the short term ascending channel, hitting it 5 times intraday. We believe that a possible move higher on monday could be what is needed to get the few bulls left trapped in, and then the sell off can occur. A potential fakeout above the resistance line is possible, in fact that 61.8% retracement of the last high is sitting at around 83.80$. We confirm our view by looking at the XLF which started breaking it’s ascending channel support today on a 60 minute chart. We recommend buying both FAZ and SDS on this potential move lower in the market as you may catch a double or even a triple (in case of FAZ). Are we going to new lows? We don’t think so, but it’s possible. In order to confirm a bull market though, the market has to break through the longterm channel resistance on strong volume. The GS chart looks like it topped out as it hit the resistance of its ascending channel and will probably want to go down and test the support which is about 15-25% lower. GLD, the gold ETF is trading right at it’s ascending channel support, we placed a long trade on the ETF with a stop just below $90.40, we believe it can get a nice push higher which may coincide with the VIX going up and the Market going down. Finally we discuss that the Dow is showing weakness, however, many times in this move higher, the DOW dictated technicals better, and so we might get a fake out in the SPY until the DOW reaches it’s resistance of the channel. Have a great weekend!
Duration : 0:10:8
Today we took profits in a lot of our puts.. XLF and SPY… The reason for taking profits right at the lows of the day, is because we are simply playing the ascending channel. With a double support region today, it seemed wise to get out of our short term trade and let the market churn on it’s own before we step back in. We still hold a short on BEN due to it’s overbought status but we are aware that the S&P can rally to 1014 (38.2% retracement) before it gives away it’s gains. If both the channel support and the ascending support are broken we will look to short the market to the 970 level.
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We look at the SPY and VIX to determine where the markets are headed next. Today could have been a short term bottom, especially because an inverse head and shoulders on the 60 minute SPY is forming. Nevertheless, a false bottom is what is needed in the market to bring us to new lows. We have underestimated the power of a 3rd wave in the market before, and we won’t again. We put in a trade Long XLF and Short QQQQs yesterday, and that provided us with great upside. That being said, we believe that going overall short on the market will yeild nice gains in the longer term (1 week-2 week) time frame, although a potential continuation of a consolidation could be at store for the next 3-4 days.